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Inflation Expectations Rise After Yields Slide

US
  • 5Y inflation breakevens have been pushed higher as the cranking lower of nominal Tsy yields has been met by an even larger slide in real yields.
  • Standing at 3.24%, the breakeven is up 9bps on the day and helps consolidate yesterday’s renewed rise, with levels back towards the previous Nov peak at a time when there was only 60bps of hikes priced for 2022 vs the ~120bps after today’s earlier shakeout.
  • Longer-term 5Y5Y inflation swaps are also drifting higher but for now remain broadly within the range of the past few months.

US 5Y inflation breakeven (white) and 5Y5Y inflation swap (yellow)Source: Bloomberg

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