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Inflation Expectations Rise In May But Q2 Average Lower Than Q1

AUSTRALIA DATA

Melbourne Institute consumer inflation expectations rose to 5.2% in May from 4.6% the previous month. It is concerning that moves below 5% are yet to be sustained. The Q2 average to date is still below Q1 at 4.9% compared with 5.2%, despite today’s shift up, and signalling that Q2 inflation should continue to moderate. Until recently the series has tended to exceed CPI inflation.

  • There was good and bad news on inflation during May but it appears that consumers were more convinced by media commentary that the budget was inflationary than by Treasurer Chalmers reassurances that it would bring inflation down. There has also been a lot in the press about rising rents and house prices, plus people could also be reflecting how they feel every time they go supermarket shopping rather than when they get petrol.
Australia MI consumer inflation expectations vs CPI y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv/ABS

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