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Inflation Mainly Driven By External Factors (FinMin Koscinki)

POLAND
  • Even though Finance Minster Koscinki reiterated that inflation is mainly driven by external factors outside of the monetary policy realm, hiking rates aggressively could limit the downside risk on the domestic currency.
  • A depreciating currency (i.e. PLN) keeps supporting inflation expectations and may result in a slower convergence towards the NBP inflation target.
  • As a reminder, CPI inflation rose to 6.8% in October, far above the NBP 3.5% upper tolerance band, and is expected to peak at or above 7% In January according to Glapinski.
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