BRIEF: IMF Says New EU Fiscal Rules To Help Contain Volatility

BRIEF: Fiscal Commitments "Critical" - Eurogroup's Donohoe

MNI BRIEF: Fed's Kashkari: 1-2 Years Before Inflation Hits 2%

MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, June 20

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY18 Bln Via OMO Thu; Rates Unchanged

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY20 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS THU

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: EU Auction, BoE APF on Monday

US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR -2.55M TO 457.1M JUN 14 WK

Homebuilding Set To Keep Softening As Pullback In Permits Continues

RPT-MNI: Canada Sticks To Fiscal Anchors, Spends Chunk Of Windfall

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

Inflation Preview: Base Effects To Weigh, Core May Be Stubborn

ITALY DATA

Italy (17% of EZ HICP) – 1000UK Thu 31 Aug

  • CPI: 5.4% Y/Y (vs 5.9% prior); 0.4% M/M (vs 0.0% prior).
  • HICP: 5.6% Y/Y (vs 6.3% prior); 0.3% M/M (vs -1.6% prior).
  • Analysts expect base effects to push headline inflation lower, while core is expected to remain elevated. The continuation of summer sales should put continued pressure on semi-durable goods (e.g. clothing/footwear).
  • Nomura expect deflation of both electricity and gas prices, following falls in electricity market prices and more regularly updated retail gas prices (now monthly rather than quarterly).
Analyst outlooks:
  • Barclays: HICP 5.7% Y/Y (0.3% M/M)
  • Goldman: 5.7% Y/Y; core 4.3% Y/Y.
  • Morgan Stanley: CPI 5.3% Y/Y, core 4.1% Y/Y
  • JPM: HICP 5.6% Y/Y, CPI 5.5% Y/Y and 0.4% M/M
  • BofA: HICP 5.7% Y/Y, 0.3% M/M.
Homepagemarkets-real-timeBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.