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Inflation Preview: Base Effects To Weigh, Core May Be Stubborn

ITALY DATA

Italy (17% of EZ HICP) – 1000UK Thu 31 Aug

  • CPI: 5.4% Y/Y (vs 5.9% prior); 0.4% M/M (vs 0.0% prior).
  • HICP: 5.6% Y/Y (vs 6.3% prior); 0.3% M/M (vs -1.6% prior).
  • Analysts expect base effects to push headline inflation lower, while core is expected to remain elevated. The continuation of summer sales should put continued pressure on semi-durable goods (e.g. clothing/footwear).
  • Nomura expect deflation of both electricity and gas prices, following falls in electricity market prices and more regularly updated retail gas prices (now monthly rather than quarterly).
Analyst outlooks:
  • Barclays: HICP 5.7% Y/Y (0.3% M/M)
  • Goldman: 5.7% Y/Y; core 4.3% Y/Y.
  • Morgan Stanley: CPI 5.3% Y/Y, core 4.1% Y/Y
  • JPM: HICP 5.6% Y/Y, CPI 5.5% Y/Y and 0.4% M/M
  • BofA: HICP 5.7% Y/Y, 0.3% M/M.
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