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Inflation the driver

BONDS
  • Inflation has been the focus for fixed income markets this morning. French HICP came in a bit higher than expected and initially saw Bunds move to their low of the day but Spanish HICP released 15 minutes later reversed this move and the move was exacerbated further by the release of German state CPI data. According to MNI estimates, the national German CPI (non-HICP) print is tracking 0.4%M/M (versus the 0.5%M/M Bloomberg survey), suggesting that German inflation is also softer than expected.
  • Looking ahead the German national print is due at 13:00BST / 8:00ET with US PCE and personal income / spending data at 13:30BST / 8:30ET and then the MNI Chicago Business Barometer at 14:45BST / 9:45ET.
  • TY1 futures are up 0-12 today at 115-03+ with 10y UST yields down -5.1bp at 3.472% and 2y yields down -4.0bp at 4.031%.
  • Bund futures are up 0.84 today at 134.96 with 10y Bund yields down -8.5bp at 2.372% and Schatz yields down -8.6bp at 2.726%.
  • Gilt futures are up 0.58 today at 101.35 with 10y yields down -6.8bp at 3.722% and 2y yields down -3.1bp at 3.774%.
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