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Inflation the Surprise of the Day

GILT SUMMARY
  • The highlight of the day came before markets opened with the release of higher than expected inflation data. Clothing, furniture and fuel all helped to push CPI to 1.0% Y/Y (0.6% Y/Y had been expected). RPI also came in higher than expected pushing linkers higher. However the afternoon has seen both nominals and linkers move off their highs with nominal 10-year gilts largely unchanged on the day and linkers still higher, but less so than this morning. Tomorrow the DMO will come to the market to sell GBP1.1bln nominal of the 0.125% Aug-28 linker.
  • The next significant UK data comes on Friday when retail sales will give us more information on the state of the economy in July. Public sector finances for July will be published simultaneously while the August flash PMIs will also be released.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.04 today at 137.01 with 10y yields up 0.3bp at 0.221% and 2y yields up 0.4bp at -0.41%.
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