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ING Estimate Core Inflation to Have Fallen to 7.3% Y/Y in November

POLAND
  • The stabilisation of annual CPI inflation is mainly due to the substantial decline in core inflation, ING say, which, according to their estimates, fell to 7.3% y/y in November from 8.0% in October. Declines in annual inflation are evident in most of the categories included in core inflation, which is what caused such a large fall of core in YoY terms, they say.
  • ING write that their preliminary estimate is that CPI inflation will rise slightly in December due to the low reference base from last year when consumer prices rose by merely 0.1% m/m. However, they add that the beginning of 2024 should bring further disinflation.
  • On NBP policy, they assume the MPC will refrain from changing interest rates until at least March where the central bank’s next macroeconomic projection should provide a better assessment of the medium-term inflation outlook than the November round.
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