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ING Expect 50bp Rate Cut Next Week

HUNGARY
  • The reducing local risk premium since the last meeting led ING to believe that the 75bp pace of cuts could be maintained. However, the recent spate of unfavourable domestic and international developments justifies a more cautious approach from the NBH. They see a 50bp cut in April.
  • The repricing in the rates complex seen after the March meeting gave the forint a huge boost. However, in light of the latest US data flow, the tide has turned, and the forint is back on a weakening path. Additionally, comments of the MPC’s Gyula Pleschinger sent the ultimate signal to markets: "We definitely need a more cautious rate-cycle from here composed of smaller steps. It’s not worth surprising the markets".
  • Against this backdrop, ING see the NBH slowing the pace of rate cuts to 50bps. In their view, the April rate-setting meeting will be a good opportunity for the NBH to confirm to the markets the previously telegraphed message that a new era in monetary policy will begin in the second quarter and that it will remain vigilant to any deterioration in the risk environment.
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