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POLAND: ING Expect Headline Inflation to Peak in March

POLAND
PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market News
  • In the first months of 2025, ING expect consumer inflation to increase further and reach its peak in March. This will be driven by hikes in excise duty on cigarettes and a low reference base.
  • In the following months, headline inflation should decline and amount to 3.0-3.5% Y/Y at the end of the year. In their view, this will create space for monetary policy easing and cuts in NBP rates by around 75-100bps.
  • At the same time, ING note that signals from the MPC have been rather hawkish in recent weeks, suggesting that policymakers intend to start cutting rates later than earlier this year.
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  • In the first months of 2025, ING expect consumer inflation to increase further and reach its peak in March. This will be driven by hikes in excise duty on cigarettes and a low reference base.
  • In the following months, headline inflation should decline and amount to 3.0-3.5% Y/Y at the end of the year. In their view, this will create space for monetary policy easing and cuts in NBP rates by around 75-100bps.
  • At the same time, ING note that signals from the MPC have been rather hawkish in recent weeks, suggesting that policymakers intend to start cutting rates later than earlier this year.