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ING Expecting a 75bps Hike Accompanied By Dovish Rhetoric

POLAND
  • Inflation may be losing momentum in Poland, but the risk of it persisting is high.
  • The country's central bank has tough choices to make amid looming stagflation, especially when you look at the collapse of the PMI figures.
  • ING is expecting a strong response from the NBP: a 75 basis point rate hike accompanied by somewhat dovish rhetoric.
  • ING is changing its end of 2022 €/PLN forecast to 4.65 vs 4.50 before, assuming that a weak PLN in the short term may force the NBP to keep hiking despite signs of a GDP slowdown.
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