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ING Maintain Call of 25bp Rate Cut in October

HUNGARY
  • Although ING expect the economy to emerge from technical recession in the third quarter of this year, they see a full-year recession ahead. In addition, despite sticking to their base case scenario for striking a deal with the EU before the end of the year, they acknowledge that political risks are rising.
  • Going forward, ING expect disinflation to shift into a higher gear, helped by sizeable base effects. Headline inflation could well retreat below 8% by December, they say. They expect headline inflation to fall to around 12.4% in September and maintain their call that the central bank will only cut the base rate by 25bp in October.
  • While acknowledging the risks of a 50bp cut, ING believe that the EUR/HUF level and volatility could lead the Monetary Council to opt for a less dovish easing, thus providing renewed support to the HUF.
  • ING say a lower EUR/USD remains a downside risk to to the HUF in the short-term, however in the medium- and long-term it should in turn help keep EUR/HUF lower. Overall, they remain positive on FX with a year-end target of 375 EUR/HUF.
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