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CEE FX: ING More Convinced That Focus for CZK, PLN Will Remain on Local Story

CEE FX
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  • ING note that, for now, EUR/PLN and EUR/CZK seem to have no intention of catching up with the EUR/USD slide from late last year and in recent days. They are therefore becoming more convinced that the focus will remain on the local story regardless of the global context. Rates and monetary policy play a major role for now and a hawkish shift by both central banks will keep currencies supported going forward, ING add.
  • They still believe the risk on CNB is now on the dovish side versus market pricing and any hint of a return to rate cuts by the central bank should lead to a weakening of the CZK. In Poland, the situation seems more balanced from a market pricing perspective, which may be more hawkish from current levels. Therefore, EUR/PLN may retest 4.250 soon with the NBP meeting next week, ING say.
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  • ING note that, for now, EUR/PLN and EUR/CZK seem to have no intention of catching up with the EUR/USD slide from late last year and in recent days. They are therefore becoming more convinced that the focus will remain on the local story regardless of the global context. Rates and monetary policy play a major role for now and a hawkish shift by both central banks will keep currencies supported going forward, ING add.
  • They still believe the risk on CNB is now on the dovish side versus market pricing and any hint of a return to rate cuts by the central bank should lead to a weakening of the CZK. In Poland, the situation seems more balanced from a market pricing perspective, which may be more hawkish from current levels. Therefore, EUR/PLN may retest 4.250 soon with the NBP meeting next week, ING say.