MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, January 9

MNI: BAVARIA DEC CPI 3.0% Y/Y (FLASH WAS 3.2%)

MNI: GERMANY NOV EXPORTS +2.1% M/M

MNI BOJ: 2 OUT OF 9 JAPAN REGIONS UP ECON VIEW FROM OCT

MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY20.7 Bln via OMO Thursday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1886 Thurs; -2.34% Y/Y

MNI: GERMANY NRW DEC CPI +0.5% M/M, +2.5% Y/Y

MNI: GERMANY NOV IND PROD +1.5% M/M

MNI:AUSTRALIA NOV TRADE BALANCE A$+7079

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

MNI US Payrolls Preview: Test For Fading Rate Cut Expectations

With 2025 Fed rate cuts having been steadily priced out, a downside payrolls surprise could have a strong market impact.
USHomepageEmployment InsightMarketsStoryNorth America

MNI (NEW YORK) - Executive Summary

  • Nonfarm payrolls growth is seen at circa 160k in December as some recent distortions from hurricanes and strikes are increasingly in the rear-view mirror, and with a relatively narrow range to analyst estimates.
  • The initial response rate to the establishment payroll survey increased notably back last month but we don’t rule out further large two-month downward revisions.
  • The unemployment rate is broadly seen holding at 4.2%, although at an unrounded 4.246% in November it wouldn’t surprise if it rounded to 4.3%. A ‘high’ 4.3% would still be notable, though, for a fresh recent high.
  • This release will also see annual seasonal adjustment factor revisions for the household survey. They’re typically modest but we nevertheless watch them for any changes in recent trends.
  • These revisions only affect the household survey, i.e. not payrolls figures from the establishment survey, although the latter will have more significant annual revisions in next month’s release.
  • The next 25bp cut from the FOMC is only just fully priced for the June meeting whilst the USD index is at recent highs with the real exchange rate particularly elevated on a historical basis. We feel market sensitivity would be greatest in event of a report with broad dovish implications. 

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

Keep reading...Show less
212 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.

MNI (NEW YORK) - Executive Summary

  • Nonfarm payrolls growth is seen at circa 160k in December as some recent distortions from hurricanes and strikes are increasingly in the rear-view mirror, and with a relatively narrow range to analyst estimates.
  • The initial response rate to the establishment payroll survey increased notably back last month but we don’t rule out further large two-month downward revisions.
  • The unemployment rate is broadly seen holding at 4.2%, although at an unrounded 4.246% in November it wouldn’t surprise if it rounded to 4.3%. A ‘high’ 4.3% would still be notable, though, for a fresh recent high.
  • This release will also see annual seasonal adjustment factor revisions for the household survey. They’re typically modest but we nevertheless watch them for any changes in recent trends.
  • These revisions only affect the household survey, i.e. not payrolls figures from the establishment survey, although the latter will have more significant annual revisions in next month’s release.
  • The next 25bp cut from the FOMC is only just fully priced for the June meeting whilst the USD index is at recent highs with the real exchange rate particularly elevated on a historical basis. We feel market sensitivity would be greatest in event of a report with broad dovish implications. 

PLEASE FIND THE FULL REPORT HERE:

Keep reading...Show less