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ING Say Surprise Drop in Inflation Opens Door to November Rate Cut

CZECHIA
  • Inflation fell faster than expected in September, but base effects mean that inflation could rise again throughout the rest of the year, ING say. However, headline and core inflation are below the central bank's forecast and ING think this opens the door to a rate cut in November.
  • ING’s latest forecast shows an increase in the headline number to 8.2% Y/Y for October, but this is less than they had previously expected given the earlier drop in energy prices. And it should also be safely below the CNB's current forecast.
  • ING add that inflation should then remain around 8% or below until the end of the year, and in January, in turn, the base effect should help inflation move into the 2-3% YoY range.
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