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ING See Limited Scope for NBP Easing

POLAND
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market News
  • They now see limited scope for NBP monetary easing and most likely no rate cuts in 2024. ING see the very high increase in core inflation remaining a major problem, and companies will also continue to pass on high wage growth to consumers. This, and consumer demand growth, will most likely mean that core inflation will remain high in MoM terms.
  • ING expect core inflation to stabilise or even increase to around 4.5% YoY at the end of 2024. Headline inflation should rise to around 5.5% YoY at the end of 2024 and to 6.5% in the first quarter of 2025.
  • This does not provide room for rapid NBP rate cuts. It also most likely means that the overall scale of NBP easing will be smaller than for other countries within the region.
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  • They now see limited scope for NBP monetary easing and most likely no rate cuts in 2024. ING see the very high increase in core inflation remaining a major problem, and companies will also continue to pass on high wage growth to consumers. This, and consumer demand growth, will most likely mean that core inflation will remain high in MoM terms.
  • ING expect core inflation to stabilise or even increase to around 4.5% YoY at the end of 2024. Headline inflation should rise to around 5.5% YoY at the end of 2024 and to 6.5% in the first quarter of 2025.
  • This does not provide room for rapid NBP rate cuts. It also most likely means that the overall scale of NBP easing will be smaller than for other countries within the region.