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ING see NBP September Cut on the Cards

POLAND
  • ING write that Poland are on track to reach single-digit CPI next month, with an NBP rate cut in September. They estimate that core inflation excluding food and energy prices should slow to around 10.5% from 11.1% in June.
  • They expect a slower decline in inflation during H2 and if oil prices remain at current levels, Poland may see fuel prices rise again after the summer holidays.
  • ING expect the NBP to cut rates by 50-75bps in 2023 and begin easing in September. However, monetary easing will prolong the period for inflation to return to target and they see important medium-term risks.

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