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ING See Two Further Norges Hikes, And EUR/NOK at 11.00 into Y/E

NORGES BANK
  • Since the last projections in March, NOK is around 5% weaker and global rate expectations are up too. As such, ING suspect the peak rate projection would now be at 3.75% or slightly above.
  • As such, they expect two more 25bps hikes, one in June and one in August or September. They wouldn’t rule out a 4% peak, though that may not be necessary.
  • On NOK, they are not ready to call for a reversal of the NOK bearish trend, and external factors need to favour a NOK recovery before any domestic factors can seriously become part of the equation.
  • Their EUR/NOK target for year-end is 11.00, which clearly falls in the rosier side of the spectrum, but is in line with a convergence of NOK with good economic fundamentals.
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