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Initial Claims Inching Lower

US TSYS
Tsys trade steady to mildly higher late Thu, very near the middle of narrow session range on modest volumes (TYZ<775k). Equities mildly higher (ESU1 +9.0), US$ weaker (DXY -.232 at 92.217), generally quiet in the lead-up to August employ data Fri morning.
  • August nonfarm payroll survey change median is +725k on a range of 400k to 1M, with average 707k and standard deviation 137k (suggesting a 570k to 844k figure would be roughly within expectations).
  • Tsys gained early but scaled back support after lower than estimated weekly claims (340k vs. 345k), and continuing claims (2.748M vs. 2.808M), rates making session lows by midmorning (10YY 1.3037%H; 30YY 1.9228%H).
  • Swappable corporate debt issuance and option related hedging generated two-way trade.
  • The 2-Yr yield is up 0.2bps at 0.2115%, 5-Yr is up 0.2bps at 0.774%, 10-Yr is down 0.2bps at 1.2919%, and 30-Yr is down 0.9bps at 1.9045%.

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