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Initial Claims Re-Affirm Shift Higher But Increase Levels Off

US DATA
  • Initial claims reversed more of the prior week’s decline than expected, rising from 228k to 239k with no revisions.
  • With the 4-week average ticking up to 240k (+2k), it maintains the higher trend level seen after last week’s significant seasonal adjustment revision.
  • The directional trend in the SA data has plateaued in recent weeks though, with levels of non-seasonally adjusted claims at the higher end but still reasonably close to more ‘typical’ pre-pandemic levels.

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