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Initial Claims Surprise Higher But Trend Continues Pushing Lower

US DATA
  • Initial jobless claims surprised higher with a seasonally adjusted 214k (cons 200k) in the week to Jan 20 after the surprisingly low 189k (initial 187k) was one of the lowest prints in the last twenty five years.
  • Despite the week-on-week increase, the four-week average pushed lower again to just 202k (a 220k in Dec 22 dropped out). Recall the lowest single print in 2019 was 197k.
  • Continuing claims saw a smaller surprise higher at a seasonally adjusted 1833k (cons 1823k) in the week to Jan 13, capturing the payrolls reference week, after an unrevised 1806k.
  • The NSA continuing claims part a very similar relative picture to last week’s data, high compared to 2023 standards but at the low end of ranges for the time of the year in prior years.

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