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Initial Jobless Claims Continue To Push Back On Rising Layoffs

US DATA
  • Initial jobless claims at a seasonally adjusted 191k (cons 197k) last week saw a second lower than expected week after the rare upside surprise two weeks prior.
  • The 4wk average ticks down 1k to 196k, still well below the 2019 average of 218k and not far from the 2019 single week low of 173k (breached in 2022 with 166k).
  • Of note covering a payrolls reference week, it continues to show very little sign of labour market deterioration as opposed to strong increases in layoffs seen elsewhere including the Challenger series.

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