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Inline CPI-ATE Would Secure 25bps Hike in August

NORWAY
  • Thursday's CPI-ATE is expected to slow to 6.4% from a cycle high of 7.0% in July, which would mark the first deceleration in underlying inflation since February and only the fourth in close to two calendar years.
  • The Norges Bank’s forecast error for June inflation was significant – and followed previous forecast errors that drove the bank to re-accelerate the tightening cycle to ‘double’ hikes of 50bps in June.
  • Base effects and lower electricity prices are seen as the key drivers, but broad strength in the NOK should also ease pressure: the trade-weighted I-44 exchange rate has moved close to 9% in favour of the NOK off the late May extremes.
  • An inline reading would secure a 25bps rate hike on August 18th, however another stubbornly high CPI-ATE reading could drive another double hike to 4.25%.
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