MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, July 9

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CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY2 BILLION VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS TUES

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Inside Lower, Narrow Range, Tsy Borrow Ests Lower Than Expected

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures holding modestly, see-sawing near the middle of the session range by the bell. Several exogenous factors at play.
  • Tsy futures had been climbing off morning lows after lower than expected German CPI spurred shorts to unwind. That was until midmorning Nikkei headlines posited the Bank of Japan will consider tweaking yield curve control framework at tomorrow's policy meeting.
  • Stocks regained positive momentum by midmorning as some desks suggest (unconfirmed) month-end asset allocation from FI into stocks may be at play.
  • The pendulum swung higher on the bell after the US Tsy announced borrowing estimates for Q4 and Q1'24.
  • Treasury expects to borrow USD776 billion in the fourth quarter and an an additional USD816 billion in the first quarter of next year. Both estimates would represent records for each respective quarter. The fourth quarter estimate is USD76 billion less than previously announced in July, due to projections of higher receipts. The U.S. agency is assuming an end-of-December and end-of-March cash balance of USD750 billion.
  • Tuesday focus turns to ECI, Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence data ahead ADP and TBAC refunding Wednesday morning followed by the FOMC policy announcement Wednesday afternoon.
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