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IP Data Raises Concerns of Faltering Recovery, Briefly Pressures Forint

HUF
While EURHUF is sitting close to unchanged on the day at typing, the cross had pierced above the 387.00 handle earlier in the session. Approximately 50% of the Jan 30 – Feb 02 sell-off in EURHUF has been pared, though a break of last week’s pre-NBH high of 390.49 is needed to reinstate a stronger bullish theme.
  • This morning, Hungary’s year-on-year industrial production recorded its lowest level since July 2020, raising concerns of a faltering recovery in the domestic economy. The data will add to the pressure on the NBH to increase the pace of monetary policy easing at the next MPC meeting (Feb 27). Yesterday, Economy Minister Nagy noted today that the NBH is still “far from” supporting the nation’s economic growth.
  • Looking ahead, CPI data on Friday is the key risk event in Hungary. As per the median estimate of the Bloomberg survey of analysts, the headline figure likely fell from +5.5% y/y in December to +4.3% in January.

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