IP Momentum Improving From Depressed Levels, Apr Trade Data On Tap Next Monday

South Korean IP was firmer than expected in Mar, rising 5.1% m/m, against a 0.4% forecast. Y/Y momentum remained negative at -7.6% (-10.2% forecast), but is up further from the Jan trough of -13.4%. Other data released showed facilities investment was negative at -2.2%, while retail sales was a modest positive at +0.4%.

• Taken together with earlier data from the week in terms of further improvement in consumer and business sentiment readings, it paints a slightly better growth activity/momentum backdrop. Still, we are coming off relatively depressed levels.
• Reflecting this point, the cyclical leading index was unchanged at -0.3 and remains only a touch above late 2022 lows (-0.4).
• Note we get Apr trade data on Monday for South Korea, the market expects export growth of -11.8% y/y (prior -13.6%), import growth of -11.1% y/y (prior -6.4%) and the trade balance at -$2893mn, (prior -$4632mn).