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IP Notably Weak In March, Little Respite Ahead Per Surveys

ITALY DATA
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Italian March industrial production printed notably below consensus at -0.5% M/M SA (vs 0.3% cons, a downwardly revised 0.0% prior). On an WDA annual basis, IP was -3.5% Y/Y (vs a downwardly revised -3.3% prior).

  • The weakness remains consistent with survey evidence. The manufacturing PMI has been contractionary for 12 of the last 13 months (save for a 50.4 reading in March ’24) while the EC and ISTAT industrial confidence readings also remain below neutral with little indication of recovering conditions.
  • Recent trends in IP suggest that industry was not a major contributor to the stronger-than-expected flash Q1 GDP estimate of 0.3% Q/Q.
  • On a 3m/3m SA basis, IP was -1.3% in March (vs -0.7% prior), the 7th consecutive negative reading.
  • All major sub-components were negative on an annual basis in March, with both durable and non-durable goods IP falling 9.5% Y/Y each. Overall consumer goods production was -4.6% (vs -5.3% prior).

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Italian March industrial production printed notably below consensus at -0.5% M/M SA (vs 0.3% cons, a downwardly revised 0.0% prior). On an WDA annual basis, IP was -3.5% Y/Y (vs a downwardly revised -3.3% prior).

  • The weakness remains consistent with survey evidence. The manufacturing PMI has been contractionary for 12 of the last 13 months (save for a 50.4 reading in March ’24) while the EC and ISTAT industrial confidence readings also remain below neutral with little indication of recovering conditions.
  • Recent trends in IP suggest that industry was not a major contributor to the stronger-than-expected flash Q1 GDP estimate of 0.3% Q/Q.
  • On a 3m/3m SA basis, IP was -1.3% in March (vs -0.7% prior), the 7th consecutive negative reading.
  • All major sub-components were negative on an annual basis in March, with both durable and non-durable goods IP falling 9.5% Y/Y each. Overall consumer goods production was -4.6% (vs -5.3% prior).