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GERMAN DATA: IP Stronger Than Expected in November; Weakness Trend Remains

GERMAN DATA
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German industrial production was stronger than expected in November at +1.5% M/M, outstripping consensus of 0.5%, especially considering October's print was upwardly revised by 0.6pp to -0.4%. On a Y/Y basis, IP came in at -2.8% (vs -4.5% cons; prior was revised from -4.5% to -4.2%). November's data overall does not suggest an upcoming turn for the struggling industrial sector in Germany.

  • The less volatile 3M/3M measure remained in negative territory, printing weaker than before on base effects, at -1.1% (-0.2% prior).
  • On a broad split, energy production almost reversed its drop from last month (+5.6% vs -6.0% prior), construction printed a rather strong +2.1%, while manufacturing was the comparably weakest at +1.2%.
  • Within manufacturing, the split across investment / intermediate / consumption goods showed these categories all printed positive in December - but none of them appeared to exhibit a pronounced, idiosyncratic trend in the last couple of months. For further details see the table.
  • Sentiment in industry in Germany remains weak, meanwhile, clouding the outlook.
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German industrial production was stronger than expected in November at +1.5% M/M, outstripping consensus of 0.5%, especially considering October's print was upwardly revised by 0.6pp to -0.4%. On a Y/Y basis, IP came in at -2.8% (vs -4.5% cons; prior was revised from -4.5% to -4.2%). November's data overall does not suggest an upcoming turn for the struggling industrial sector in Germany.

  • The less volatile 3M/3M measure remained in negative territory, printing weaker than before on base effects, at -1.1% (-0.2% prior).
  • On a broad split, energy production almost reversed its drop from last month (+5.6% vs -6.0% prior), construction printed a rather strong +2.1%, while manufacturing was the comparably weakest at +1.2%.
  • Within manufacturing, the split across investment / intermediate / consumption goods showed these categories all printed positive in December - but none of them appeared to exhibit a pronounced, idiosyncratic trend in the last couple of months. For further details see the table.
  • Sentiment in industry in Germany remains weak, meanwhile, clouding the outlook.
image