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IPCA Inflation Data Due, Lower House Passes Spending Bill

BRAZIL
  • Monthly inflation is estimated to breach 1% for a second consecutive month, while 12-month inflation should remain in double-digits, expected to rise to 10.48%.
  • Pressures from food, electricity and fuel prices continue to keep the headline rate on an upward trajectory. Worth noting Petrobras raised gasoline prices twice in October amid a continued rise of international prices and persistent currency weakness.
  • Today's prints, combined with the ongoing BCB focus survey results will likely sculpt expectations for the December Copom meeting and any potential acceleration of the already aggressive tightening of policy.
  • USDBRL hovers right at the May/August highs around 5.48, the low end of the most recent range, with key trend support defined at 5.4342, Oct 15 low. Traders will await the domestic data before US CPI becomes the dominant driver for the greenback.
    • 1200GMT/0700ET: Oct. Brazil CPI IPCA MoM, est. 1.06%, prior 1.16%
    • 1200GMT/0700ET: Oct. Brazil CPI IPCA YoY, est. 10.48%, prior 10.25%
  • Brazil's lower house of congress passed a controversial proposal that bends the country's fiscal rules to finance a new social program President Jair Bolsonaro is launching ahead of his 2022 re-election campaign. (BBG)
    • The so-called precatorios bill was approved late on Tuesday by 323-172 votes, a wider margin of support than it had received just a week ago. It now needs the backing of three-fifths of senators, also in two rounds of voting. Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco still has to decide whether the proposal will be analyzed by the constitution and justice committee before the floor vote.

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