MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - AUD Bullish Condition Intact

MNI (LONDON) - Price Signal Summary – AUD Bullish Condition Remains Intact

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bullish and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The continuation higher last week confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact despite the latest pullback - a correction. 5039.84, 61.8% of the May 16 - Jun 14 sell-off, has been cleared. This resulted in a print above 5082.32, the 76.4% retracement.

• GBPUSD remains in a bull-mode condition and the pair is trading at its recent highs. Recent gains resulted in a break of key short-term resistance at 1.2860, the Jun 12 high and a bull trigger. This was followed by a breach of 1.2894, the Mar 8 high and a key medium-term resistance. USDJPY traded sharply lower on Jul 11, and the pair remains soft. Price breached the 20-day EMA and this exposed the next important support at 158.62, the trendline drawn from the Dec 28 low last year. AUDUSD bullish conditions remain intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. The move higher last week marked an extension of the recent breach of resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high.
• The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The yellow metal traded higher Tuesday and breached key resistance and the bull trigger at $2450.1, the May 20 high. This confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend. In the oil space, WTI futures have traded lower this week marking an extension of the current corrective cycle. Support to watch lies at $80.10, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $74.94.  
• Bund futures remain in a short-term bull cycle and the contract traded higher Tuesday. This marks an extension of the recent breach of the 50-day EMA, at 131.62. 132.51, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 14 - Jul 3 bear leg, has been pierced. Gilt futures maintain a firmer tone and the contract traded higher Tuesday. Resistance at 98.24, the Jun 28 high, has been cleared. That break, together with this week’s gains, signals scope for a climb towards key short-term resistance at 99.23. 

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure            

• RES 4: 1.0981 High Mar 3   
• RES 3: 1.0943 High Jan 21
• RES 2: 1.0916 High Jun 04 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.0922 High Jul 15
• PRICE: 1.0903 @ 05:58 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: 1.0816/1.0736 20-day EMA / Low Jul 3   
• SUP 2: 1.0666 Low Jun 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0650 Low May 1
• SUP 4: 1.0601 Low Apr 16 and a key support 

EURUSD is unchanged and a bull cycle remains in play. Last week’s gains confirmed a resumption of the current short-term bull cycle that started Jun 26. Resistance at 1.0852, the Jun 12 high, has been cleared. The break signalled scope for an extension towards key resistance at 1.0916, Jun 4 high and the next key hurdle for bulls. It has been pierced, a clear breach would open 1.0943, the  Jan 21 high. Support to watch is 1.0798, the 20-day EMA. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North             

• RES 4: 1.3193 2.236 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing     
• RES 3: 1.3142 High Jul 14 ‘23 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 1.3035 1.764 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing
• RES 1: 1.2996 High Jul 27 2023
• PRICE: 1.2967 @ 06:17 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: 1.2902 Low Jul 12  
• SUP 2: 1.2810/2735 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2613 Low Jun 27
• SUP 4: 1.2584 Low May 15   

GBPUSD remains in a bull-mode condition and the pair is trading at its recent highs. Recent gains resulted in a break of key short-term resistance at 1.2860, the Jun 12 high and a bull trigger. This was followed by a breach of 1.2894, the Mar 8 high and a key medium-term resistance, strengthening a bullish condition. The break opens 1.2996, the Jul 27 ‘23 high, and 1.30356, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is 1.2810, the 20-day EMA.    

EURGBP TECHS: Trading Closer To Its Recent Lows                            

• RES 4: 0.8586 76.4% retracement of the Apr 23 - Jun 14 bear leg  
• RES 3: 0.8568 High May 20
• RES 2: 0.8479/99 50-day EMA / High Jul 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 0.8444 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 0.8407 @ 06:31 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: 0.8389 Low Jul 15 
• SUP 2: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022
• SUP 3: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.8322 2.618 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing

A bear cycle in EURGBP remains intact and the cross is trading closer to its recent lows. The sell-off last week resulted in a print below key support at 0.8397, the Jun 14 low and the bear trigger. Clearance of this level would resume the medium-term downtrend and pave the way for an extension towards 0.8366, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is seen at 0.8444, the 20-day EMA.    

USDJPY TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present 

• RES 4: 163.36 2.00 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing     
• RES 3: 162.21 1.764 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
• RES 2: 161.95 High Jul 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 159.47/160.13 20-day EMA / 61.8% of the Jul 3- 15 bear leg 
• PRICE: 158.00 @ 06:53 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: 157.19 Low Jul 15
• SUP 2: 156.83 38.2% retracement of the Dec 28 ‘23 - Jul 3 bull run    
• SUP 3: 155.72 Low Jun 12 
• SUP 4: 154.55 Low Jun 4 

USDJPY traded sharply lower on Jul 11, and the pair remains soft. Price breached the 20-day EMA and this exposed the next important support at 158.62, the trendline drawn from the Dec 28 low last year. The line has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a potential reversal and open 156.83, a Fibonacci retracement. A reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 161.95, the Jul 3 high.   

EURJPY TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 177.09 2.0% 10-dma envelope 
• RES 3: 176.82 1.764 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
• RES 2: 176.03 1.618 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
• RES 1: 173.92/175.43 61.8% of the Jul 11 - 12 sell-off / High Jul 11 
• PRICE: 172.16 @ 07:05 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: 171.47 Low Jul 12
• SUP 2: 170.42 Trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low 
• SUP 3: 169.13 Low Jun 19 
• SUP 4: 167.53 Low Jun 14

The sharp sell-off in EURJPY on Jul 11, resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA. For now, short-term weakness appears to be a correction. The move down has exposed key support at 170.42, a trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. A clear break of this line is required to highlight a stronger reversal. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 175.43, the Jun 11 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.      

AUDUSD TECHS: Pullback Appears To Be A Correction           

• RES 4: 0.6895 High Jul 13 / 14 2023    
• RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance                
• RES 2: 0.6839 High Jan 02
• RES 1: 0.6799 High Jul 11 
• PRICE: 0.6734 @ 08:00 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: 0.6711 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.6664 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6576 Low Jun 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6558 Low May 8

AUDUSD bullish conditions remain intact and the latest pullback appears to be a correction. The move higher last week marked an extension of the recent breach of resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high. Clearance of 0.6714, confirmed a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 19. Sights are on 0.6839 next, the Jan 2 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. Initial firm support is at 0.6711, the 20-day EMA. 

USDCAD TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present Despite Recent Gains                   

• RES 4: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 2: 1.3755/3792 High Jul 2 / High Jun 11
• RES 1: 1.3708 Intraday high
• PRICE: 1.3683 @ 08:02 BST Jul 17 
• SUP 1: 1.3590/89 Low May 16 and a key support / Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4 

USDCAD has recovered from last week’s low. However, a short-term bear threat remains present, for now. Recent weakness resulted in a test of 1.3590, the May 16 low and a key support. A clear breach of it would highlight an important technical break and pave the way for an extension lower near-term. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3755, the Jul 2 high. Clearance of this level would alter the picture and highlight a bullish development. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Extension                                      

• RES 4: 133.42 1.764 projection of the May 31 - Jun 5 - 1 price swing            
• RES 3: 133.21 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger 
• RES 2: 132.80 High Jun 25
• RES 1: 132.57 High Jul 16                     
• PRICE: 132.46 @ 05:37 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: 131.62 50-day EMA           
• SUP 2: 130.95/23 Low Jul 10 / 3 and key short-term support
• SUP 3: 129.52 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger 

Bund futures remain in a short-term bull cycle and the contract traded higher Tuesday. This marks an extension of the recent breach of the 50-day EMA, at 131.62. 132.51, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 14 - Jul 3 bear leg, has been pierced. Clearance of this level would open 133.21, the Jun 14 high. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on key support at 130.23, the Jul 3 low.   

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Maintains A Firmer Tone                                          

• RES 4: 117.380 2.00 projection of the May 31 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing     
• RES 2: 117.160 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger    
• RES 3: 116.920 High Jun 24   
• RES 1: 116.840 High Jul 16               
• PRICE: 116.770 @ 05:50 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: 116.300 20-day EMA     
• SUP 2: 115.980 Low Jul 10 / 11   
• SUP 3: 115.530 Low Jul and the key short-term support
• SUP 4: 115.180 Low Jun 10 

Bobl futures remain in a short-term bull cycle and the contract traded higher Tuesday. Price has pierced 116.775, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun 14 - Jul 5 bear leg. A clear break of it would expose 117.160, the Jun 14 high and bull trigger. On the downside, a reversal would refocus attention on 115.530, the Jul 5 low and a key support. Initial support to watch lies at 116.300, the 20-day EMA.             

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Remains In Play                             

• RES 4: 106.009 2.382 projection of the May 24 - Jun 4 - 7 price swing   
• RES 3: 105.975 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger  
• RES 2: 105.837 61.8% retracement of the Jun 14 - Jul 5 bear leg      
• RES 1: 105.820 High Jul 16  
• PRICE: 105.795 @ 06:05 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: 105.619 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 105.495/390 Low Jul 11 / 5 
• SUP 3: 105.314 76.4% retracement of the May 24 Jun 14 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 105.175 Low Jun 7  

Schatz futures have traded higher this week, reinforcing a short-term bullish theme. Sights are on 105.837, a Fibonacci retracement point. A clear break of 105.837 would strengthen a bullish theme and expose 105.975, the Jun 14 high and key resistance. On the downside, a reversal would refocus attention on key short-term support at 105.390, the Jul 5 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bearish theme.                      

GILT TECHS: (U4) Bullish Theme                                        

• RES 4: 100.00 Psychological round number  
• RES 3: 99.62 1.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 98.92/99.23 High Jun 25 / 21 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 98.79 High Jul 16 
• PRICE: 98.52 @ Close Jul 16 
• SUP 1: 97.63/96.57 Low Jul 11 / 1 and a key support      
• SUP 2: 96.25 76.4% retracement of the May 29 - Jun 21 bull run      
• SUP 3: 96.12 Low Jun 10 
• SUP 4: 95.33 Low May 29 and a key support   

Gilt futures maintain a firmer tone and the contract traded higher Tuesday. Resistance at 98.24, the Jun 28 high, has been cleared. That break, together with this week’s gains, signals scope for a climb towards key short-term resistance at 99.23, the Jun 21 high. Initial support to watch lies at 97.63, the Jul 11 low. A break would highlight a reversal and this would instead refocus attention on 96.57, the Jul 1 low and a key short-term support.   

BTP TECHS: (U4) Northbound    

• RES 4:120.20 2.00 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing
• RES 3: 119.55 1.764 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing 
• RES 2: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 118.58 High May 16 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: 118.41 @ Close Jul 16 
• SUP 1: 116.86 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 116.07 Low Jul 8 
• SUP 3: 114.72 Low Jul 2 
• SUP 4: 114.35 Low Jun 11 and key support 

BTP futures have recovered from 114.72, the Jul 2 low and the contract remains firm. Recent strength resulted in a break of resistance at 117.09, the Jun 21 high, and firmer resistance at 117.62, the Jun 5 high. This undermines a recent bearish theme and signals scope for a climb towards 118.58, the May 16 high and a key resistance. Initial support lies at 116.86, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would highlight a potential reversal.                        

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Corrective Pullback      

• RES 4: 5200.00 Round number resistance  
• RES 3: 5151.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger      
• RES 2: 5132.00 High Jun 6
• RES 1: 5087.00 High Jul 12   
• PRICE: 4977.00 @ 06:31 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: 4903..00 Low Jul 2 
• SUP 2: 4860.00 Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 4846.00 Low Apr 19 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 4800.00 Round number support   

A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact despite the latest pullback - a correction. 5039.84, 61.8% of the May 16 - Jun 14 sell-off, has been cleared. This resulted in a print above 5082.32, the 76.4% retracement. A clear break of it would be a positive development and suggest scope for an extension towards 5132.00, the Jun 6 high. The 50-day EMA has been pierced, the next support is at 4903.00, the Jul 2 low.         

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Heading North   

• RES 4: 5786.66 3.50 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing 
• RES 3: 5764.00 3.50 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 2: 5741 34 3.382 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5721.25 High Jul 16      
• PRICE: 5691.00 @ 07:44 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: 5593.47 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 5502.75/5479.87 Low Jul 2 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 5398.75 Low Jun 11 
• SUP 4: 5267.75 Low May 31 and key support

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bullish and the contract is holding on to its recent gains. The continuation higher last week confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a clear bull-mode set-up too and this continues to highlight positive market sentiment. Sights are on the 5741.34, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support is at 5593.47 the 20-day EMA.   

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U4) Trades Through The 50-Day EMA              

• RES 4: $91.99 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing 
• RES 3: $90.23 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $89.32 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $87.95 - High Jul 5    
• PRICE: $83.57 @ 07:09 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: $82.31 - 50.0% retracement of the Jun 4 - Jul 5 bull leg  
• SUP 2: $79.32 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 4 - Jul 5 bull leg  
• SUP 3: $76.66 - Low Jun 4 and a key support
• SUP 4: $75.31 - Low Feb 5 

The trend condition in Brent futures remains bullish, however, a corrective cycle is in play and the contract has traded lower this week. Price has pierced support at $83.91, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal scope for an extension towards $82.31, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a reversal would signal the end of the corrective cycle and refocus attention on key short-term resistance at $87.95, the Jul 5 high.    

WTI TECHS: (Q4) Watching Support At The 50-Day EMA                   

• RES 4: $90.78 - High Oct 20 2023 (cont)
• RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $85.27 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $84.52 - High Jul 5   
• PRICE: $80.59@ 07:22 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: $80.10 50-day EMA    
• SUP 2: $74.94/72.44 - Low Jun 10 / 4
• SUP 3: $71.05 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $69.22 - Low Dec 13 ‘23 and a key support 

WTI futures have traded lower this week marking an extension of the current corrective cycle. Support to watch lies at $80.10, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and open $74.94, the Jun 10 low. For bulls, a reversal would refocus attention on resistance at $84.52, the Jul 5 high. Clearance of this level would resume the bull cycle.         

GOLD TECHS: Clears Key Resistance       

• RES 4: $2575.4 - 3.236 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing   
• RES 3: $2528.4 - 3.00 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2500.0 - ROund number resistance 
• RES 1: $2482.4 - Intraday high                 
• PRICE: $2462.9 @ 07:27 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: $2374.5 - 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: $2344.4/2286.9 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 7t
• SUP 3: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support 
• SUP 4: $2228.6 - Low Apr 1

The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and this week’s gains reinforce current conditions. The yellow metal traded higher Tuesday and breached key resistance and the bull trigger at $2450.1, the May 20 high. This confirms a resumption of the medium-term uptrend and opens the $2500.00 handle next. Moving average studies are in a clear bull-mode set-up, highlighting a rising trend. Initial support is at $2374.5, the 20-day EMA.     

SILVER TECHS: Bullish Short-Term Structure                    

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing        
• RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
• RES 2: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: $32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger               
• PRICE: $30.764 @ 08:06 BST Jul 17
• SUP 1: $30.401/28.573- 20-day EMA / Low Jun 26 and bear trigger               
• SUP 2: $27.971 - Low May 13  
• SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support  
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

Silver is in consolidation mode. A bull cycle remains in play and the metal is trading closer to its July highs. The break of $30.853, the Jun 21 high, is a bullish development and undermines a recent bearish theme. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of the key resistance and bull trigger at $32.518, the May 20 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger, lies at $28.573, the Jun 26 low.