August 12, 2022 08:09 GMT
Energy Intelligence research shows estimates for Iran’s oil output if a nuclear deal is agreed.
- Iran's output could rise to 2.95mbpd in December before slowly increasing to 3.7mbpd by June 2023, assuming a deal is struck in August. This estimates exports increasing from 1mbpd in August to 1.25mbpd in Dec22 and 2mbpd by Jun23. Assuming limited technical constraints and dependant on the time it takes the US to verify Iran’s nuclear compliance and for Tehran to verify Washington’s promises.
- Under a “Slow-Going” scenario, Iran’s production rises from 2.62mbpd to 2.74mbpd and its exports from 0.92mbpd to around 1.04mbpd by Dec22.
- The "No-Deal" scenario forecasts a decline in exports, assuming a crackdown by the US results in even more onerous sanctions.