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IRAN: Next President To Serve Full 4-Yr Term; Nuclear Negotiator Tipped For FM

IRAN
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Following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, Iran's Guardian Council has confirmed that the special election to take place within 50 days will be for a full four-year term in office, not just serving out the remainder of Raisi's term to 2025. This will result in several unintended consequences. The first being that the presidential and parliamentary elections will now take place in the same year, whereas previously the presidential election cycle was one year behind elections to the Consultative Assembly. 

  • The shift will also see the Iranian presidential election cycle line up with that of the United States. While having no material impact in either country, the emnity between the two countries - that only became more embedded during Raisi's hard-line presidency - could become even more intense with prospective leaders in both countries running for the presidency at the same time. 
  • The helicopter crash not only killed Raisi, but also Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. There is some media speculation that Deputy FM for Political Affairs Ali Bagheri Kani is set to replace the late Amir-Abdollahian as foreign minister. Bagheri Kani is Iran's seniormost nuclear negotiator, and his elevation could have a notable impact on various direct and indirect nuclear talks. 
  • Just days ago, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) DG Rafael Grossi said Iran was willing to get involved in “serious dialogue” with the nuclear agency for the first time in over a year. Should Bagheri Kani move to the FM's office this could change the delicately-balanced dynamics in nuclear talks. 
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Following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash, Iran's Guardian Council has confirmed that the special election to take place within 50 days will be for a full four-year term in office, not just serving out the remainder of Raisi's term to 2025. This will result in several unintended consequences. The first being that the presidential and parliamentary elections will now take place in the same year, whereas previously the presidential election cycle was one year behind elections to the Consultative Assembly. 

  • The shift will also see the Iranian presidential election cycle line up with that of the United States. While having no material impact in either country, the emnity between the two countries - that only became more embedded during Raisi's hard-line presidency - could become even more intense with prospective leaders in both countries running for the presidency at the same time. 
  • The helicopter crash not only killed Raisi, but also Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. There is some media speculation that Deputy FM for Political Affairs Ali Bagheri Kani is set to replace the late Amir-Abdollahian as foreign minister. Bagheri Kani is Iran's seniormost nuclear negotiator, and his elevation could have a notable impact on various direct and indirect nuclear talks. 
  • Just days ago, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) DG Rafael Grossi said Iran was willing to get involved in “serious dialogue” with the nuclear agency for the first time in over a year. Should Bagheri Kani move to the FM's office this could change the delicately-balanced dynamics in nuclear talks.