Iraq/Turkey Ceyhan Resolution May Not Translate to Higher Flows

A further push this week to restart Northern Iraq’s crude exports has fallen short of producing any concrete resolution.

• Instead, the Iraqi and Turkish oil ministers released a joint statement about resuming the flows “as soon as possible following the completion of the necessary inspection activities that had to be carried out after the earthquakes on 6 February 2023."
• Turkey's foreign minister Hakan Fidan travelled to Baghdad and Erbil in northern Iraq on 22-23 August where a seperate meeting failed to provide a resolution.
• A restart in flows would not necessarily translate into higher Iraqi output after producing 70,000 bpd above its quota last month according to Argus. It was its highest monthly output since March.
• Argus estimates that KRG-controlled fields are contributing around 75,000-80,000 b/d to Iraqi output at the moment.
• If pipeline exports to Ceyhan were to resume, it would amount to an additional 300,000 b/d from what is being produced now according to Argus but would require Iraq to reduce southern field output.