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IRELAND: 29 Nov Looks Likely Date For General Election

IRELAND
GlobalHomepagemarkets-real-timePolitical RiskPolitical Risk BulletCEEMEAEurozoneBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionIreland

Ireland's governing parties have confirmed that a general election will occur in 2024. Lisa O'Carroll at The Guardian posts on X that the leaders of the coalition partners agreed on 21 Oct that the election should take place on a Friday, making 29 November a likely polling day. Taoiseach (PM) Simon Harris confirmed that the Finance Bill would be passed before the election. With the committee stage starting 5 Nov the bill could pass in a day allowing Harris to dissolve the Dáil on 7 Nov and an election on the 29th. 

  • The next election had to be held by March 2025, but Harris and Tánaiste (Deputy PM) Micheál Martin are looking to exploit a slump in support for the main opposition left-wing Irish republican Sinn Féin (SF). Opinion polling shows Harris' centre-right Fine Gael (FG) leading with ~25% support, while Martin's centrist Fianna Fáil (FF) are second on ~20%. Support for SF has fallen from around 30-35% in mid-late 2023 to ~18% amid scandal and internal divisions. The 16% recorded in the latest Sunday Times/Opinions poll is the lowest support for SF since November 2019.
  • There is a narrow path to re-election for the incumbent gov't. A major role will be played by independent candidates, with support for unaligned politicians consistently hitting ~20% in polling amid voter apathy towards the main political parties. 

Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

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Ireland's governing parties have confirmed that a general election will occur in 2024. Lisa O'Carroll at The Guardian posts on X that the leaders of the coalition partners agreed on 21 Oct that the election should take place on a Friday, making 29 November a likely polling day. Taoiseach (PM) Simon Harris confirmed that the Finance Bill would be passed before the election. With the committee stage starting 5 Nov the bill could pass in a day allowing Harris to dissolve the Dáil on 7 Nov and an election on the 29th. 

  • The next election had to be held by March 2025, but Harris and Tánaiste (Deputy PM) Micheál Martin are looking to exploit a slump in support for the main opposition left-wing Irish republican Sinn Féin (SF). Opinion polling shows Harris' centre-right Fine Gael (FG) leading with ~25% support, while Martin's centrist Fianna Fáil (FF) are second on ~20%. Support for SF has fallen from around 30-35% in mid-late 2023 to ~18% amid scandal and internal divisions. The 16% recorded in the latest Sunday Times/Opinions poll is the lowest support for SF since November 2019.
  • There is a narrow path to re-election for the incumbent gov't. A major role will be played by independent candidates, with support for unaligned politicians consistently hitting ~20% in polling amid voter apathy towards the main political parties. 

Chart 1. General Election Opinion Polling, % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Keep reading...Show less