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ISM Services Pushes Back On Recession Fears

US DATA
  • ISM services was a little better than expected in July at 51.4 (cons 51.0), confirming a return above 50 after what had been the lowest since early in the pandemic.
  • That little better result, especially with firmer underlying details, carries an oversized market impact as it helps dampen an imminent recession angle that appeared to have been priced in.
  • New orders: 52.4 (cons 49.8) after 47.3. Still on the lower side of recent months but it sees a reversal from the first sub-50 reading since Dec’22. It also goes against the latest firmly contractionary new orders reading for last week’s ISM manufacturing report.
  • Prices paid: 57.0 (cons 55.1) after 56.3, similar to the 58.3 averaged through 1H24 and 57.9 in 2H23.
  • Employment: 51.1 (cons 46.4) after 46.1, its highest since Sep 2023.

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