Italian Gas Generation Climbs to Highest Since March in June

Italian gas-fired generation climbed to the highest since March in June, despite PV output reaching a 2024 high in the same month, while hydro output also reached a yearly high, according to data from Entso-E. But PV output is anticipated to increase sharply on the year this summer in Italy, which could place downward pressure on delivery prices, according to BNEF.

• Italian gas-fired generation averaged around 8.42GW in June, up sharply from 6.46GW in May and 6.74GW in April but slightly lower than generation in March at 8.57GW.
• In contrast, average PV output reached 4.43GW across June, only edging from 4.26GW in May – albeit still a yearly high.
• And total hydro generation – run of the river, pump etc – increased to 8.68GW from 7.66GW in May and a yearly high so far this year.
• Onshore wind output moved in the opposite direction, dropping to just 1.82GW from 2.24GW in the previous month and a yearly low for the year.
• Looking forward, Italian power demand is anticipated to drop by around 1.5% on the year in July, although this could fluctuate in the wake of heat waves, which will raise cooling demand in the country, according to BNEF.
• Hourly Italian power demand is forecast to peak at 44.8GW in July and average about 35.7GW across the month.
• Wind forecast by BNEF suggests that Italian wind is expected to fall by 3.7% on the year in July – which could support power prices - but will remain above the 5-year average due to increased installations.
• But PV generation is anticipated to rise by 15.6% on the year in July and is set to break records, BNEF said. This is mostly due to the rise of installations.
• And hydro generation will rise by 28.2% on the year in July – which could dent hydro stocks over the period – possibly increasing the hydro supply risks for the winter.
• Italy Base Power JUL 24 down 0.6% at 104.5 EUR/MWh
• TTF Gas AUG 24 down 2% at 34.14 EUR/MWh.