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EGB FUNDING UPDATE: Italy 2025 Funding Plan Details (1/3)

EGB FUNDING UPDATE
EurozoneBulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets

As noted on Friday, Italy's funding needs total E359bln for 2025 (ex BOTs) made up of redemptions (ex BOTs) of E234bln and a projected deficit of E135bln. Taking into account NGEU loans, the MEF has announced that it looks to sell E330-350bln of bonds in 2025, down from E361bln in 2024.

  • The MEF has noted that it will stick to auction schedules of 3/7/15+ year BTPs and 6-month BOTs mid-month. And end of month 5/10-year BTPs, CCTeus, BTP Short Term and BTPEis will be on offer. It also reserves the right to issue off-the-run bonds at auction if there is liquidity demand.
  • The stock of BOTs is expected to remain steady in 2025, it is expected to end 2024 at E130.5bln.
  • BTP Short Term: 2 new issues expected (MNI expect January and H2 launches). The MEF looks for a gradual reduction in BTP Short Term's issuance weighting with a redistribution to medium-term maturities. E30.122bln is due to mature in 2025 with net issuance expected to be negative. This would likely see smaller auctions than in 2024: we pencil in E3.25-3.50bln launch auctions with taps of E2.00-2.25bln.
  • 3/5-year BTPs: Positive net issuance for both expected but a marginal reduction in overall issuance weight (redemptions of 3-years: E13.426bln, 5-years E33.191bln). But lower gross issuance than in 2024 (E44.2bln for the 3-year and E41.4bln for the 5-year). 2 new issues of each are expected, MNI pencils in the first new 5-year in February / March and first new 3-year in March / April.
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As noted on Friday, Italy's funding needs total E359bln for 2025 (ex BOTs) made up of redemptions (ex BOTs) of E234bln and a projected deficit of E135bln. Taking into account NGEU loans, the MEF has announced that it looks to sell E330-350bln of bonds in 2025, down from E361bln in 2024.

  • The MEF has noted that it will stick to auction schedules of 3/7/15+ year BTPs and 6-month BOTs mid-month. And end of month 5/10-year BTPs, CCTeus, BTP Short Term and BTPEis will be on offer. It also reserves the right to issue off-the-run bonds at auction if there is liquidity demand.
  • The stock of BOTs is expected to remain steady in 2025, it is expected to end 2024 at E130.5bln.
  • BTP Short Term: 2 new issues expected (MNI expect January and H2 launches). The MEF looks for a gradual reduction in BTP Short Term's issuance weighting with a redistribution to medium-term maturities. E30.122bln is due to mature in 2025 with net issuance expected to be negative. This would likely see smaller auctions than in 2024: we pencil in E3.25-3.50bln launch auctions with taps of E2.00-2.25bln.
  • 3/5-year BTPs: Positive net issuance for both expected but a marginal reduction in overall issuance weight (redemptions of 3-years: E13.426bln, 5-years E33.191bln). But lower gross issuance than in 2024 (E44.2bln for the 3-year and E41.4bln for the 5-year). 2 new issues of each are expected, MNI pencils in the first new 5-year in February / March and first new 3-year in March / April.