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EGB FUNDING UPDATE: Italy 2025 Funding Plan Details (3/3)

EGB FUNDING UPDATE
EurozoneBulletMarketsFixed Income Bullets
  • CCTeu: At least one new issue expected with a maturity between 3-10 years (in 2024 there were two: an 8-year issue in April and an 8.5 year issue in October). There are three CCTeus maturing in 2025 (launch in 2017/18/19) with redemptions of E40.283bln due. The MEF notes that there will be negative net issuance in 2025 but issuance should be above the E26.6bln of 2024. MNI pencils in a new 2034 CCTeu and we also see the possibility of a Oct-27 CCTeu (as there are no CCTeus maturing in 2027). There is also a chance that after extending the maturity of the CCTeu curve with two new issues in 2024, MEF decides to issue a new 2035 CCTeu in H2-25. This would largely depend upon the timing of the new 2034 issue in our view.
  • BTPEi: There are no BTPEis due to mature in 2025 so net issuance in each maturity will be positive. The MEF will look to issue "substantially in line" with 2024 volumes (E25.7bln). However, it expects maturities to be skewed more to the longer-end than the shorter-end relative to 2024.
  • Retail: One or more retail BTPs to be issued in 2025 but sector, maturity and frequency of coupons under review. At least one new BTP Italia to be evaluated to replace the E18.4bln maturing in 2025 (originally a 5-year issue).
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  • CCTeu: At least one new issue expected with a maturity between 3-10 years (in 2024 there were two: an 8-year issue in April and an 8.5 year issue in October). There are three CCTeus maturing in 2025 (launch in 2017/18/19) with redemptions of E40.283bln due. The MEF notes that there will be negative net issuance in 2025 but issuance should be above the E26.6bln of 2024. MNI pencils in a new 2034 CCTeu and we also see the possibility of a Oct-27 CCTeu (as there are no CCTeus maturing in 2027). There is also a chance that after extending the maturity of the CCTeu curve with two new issues in 2024, MEF decides to issue a new 2035 CCTeu in H2-25. This would largely depend upon the timing of the new 2034 issue in our view.
  • BTPEi: There are no BTPEis due to mature in 2025 so net issuance in each maturity will be positive. The MEF will look to issue "substantially in line" with 2024 volumes (E25.7bln). However, it expects maturities to be skewed more to the longer-end than the shorter-end relative to 2024.
  • Retail: One or more retail BTPs to be issued in 2025 but sector, maturity and frequency of coupons under review. At least one new BTP Italia to be evaluated to replace the E18.4bln maturing in 2025 (originally a 5-year issue).