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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
MACRO ANALYSIS
- We touched upon the huge swings in credit impulse calculations based on new credit issuance after ECB President Lagarde talked on credit growth at the ECB press conference two weeks ago.
- The extra month’s data shows a continuation of the theme of a less negative drag from growth on a 12mth/12mth basis at -1.4% GDP whilst a shorter-term measure has switched from neutral in recent months to a small boost worth +0.7% GDP.
- Looking by country and as noted in part 1, Italian and Spanish lending to non-financial corporations is lagging its German and French counterparts quite notably as of June.
- However, focusing on the 12mth/12mth metrics, the relative changes in net new credit issuance paint a different picture with Italy and Spain no longer seeing large drags from private credit growth.
- It’s in contrast to heavy drags in Germany (-2.6% GDP) and France (-3.0% GDP), with the former likely helping weigh on what’s been particularly soft German GDP growth of just -0.2% Y/Y as of Q1.
- The differences stem from the large moderation from strong growth rates in previous years for Germany and France whilst Italy and Spain saw a notably weaker starting point for credit growth.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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