Italy Confindustria Raises Growth F'Casts, Recovery Stronger

--Warns On Risks of Unwinding Monetary Policy Too Soon

By Silvia Marchetti

     ROME (MNI) - Confindustria, Italy's leading industrial lobby, Thursday

raised its previous country growth forecasts following improvements in the

economic outlook but warned on the downside risks posed by a tightening in

monetary policy at European level. 

     In its Economic Scenarios report, the lobby group raised this year's GDP

forecast to 1.5% from the 1.3% predicted in June, with forecast 2018 growth

upped to 1.3% from 1.1%. The group added that an additional 0.5% of growth is

expected from the new budget law, soon to be cleared by government. 

     Confindustria's brighter predictions are in line with those of the Bank of

Italy and International Monetary Fund , both of whom recently lifted their

country growth forecasts. 

     Italy is no longer the "Cinderella" of Europe, said the report. "The

economy has returned to the same levels prior to the second crisis of

2011-2013". However, the report noted that the country is still 4.7% of GDP

behind levels seen ahead of the 2008 global financial crisis. 

     Confindustria hailed as positive the creation of new jobs, increased

investment and the revival in exports that was helping lead the recovery. 

     The lobby group warned, however, against possible instability risks from

the European Central Bank beginning the unwind of the so-far accommodative

monetary policy too soon, when growth was not yet back on a sustainable path. 

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2225; email: les.commons@marketnews.com

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