ITALY DATA
The November ISTAT and EC surveys suggest the Italian economy continued to display stagnant growth in Q4. Business confidence fell to its lowest since April 2021 in November (93.1 vs 93.4 prior). Meanwhile, consumer confidence fell for a second consecutive month to 96.6 (vs 97.4 cons and prior) - in contrast to the EC’s indicator which ticked up to -13.8 (vs -14.8 prior).
- Ongoing economic stagnation into 2025 could pose a risk to the Italian Government’s fiscal targets. Sources recently told the MNI Policy Team that the 2024 fiscal deficit is likely to be 0.1-0.2 percentage points higher than its target of 3.8% of GDP, due to lower-than-expected GDP growth.
- All four of the ISTAT survey’s main consumer components fell in November, with the future climate reading falling 1.2 points to 93.8.
- At a sector level, ISTAT manufacturing, construction and retail confidence improved (the latter to 106.7 vs 103.8 prior), but this was offset by falls in services and construction sentiment.
- The EC survey noted an uptick in expected prices amongst manufacturers, retailers and services firms. This could pose an upside risk to Italian flash November inflation tomorrow (current HICP consensus at 1.4% Y/Y).
- EC Expected employment softened a touch, but remains in expansionary territory, consistent with the multi-decade low Italian unemployment rate.
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