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ITALY DATA: Unemployment Rate At 17-year Lows

ITALY DATA
Data BulletEurozoneCEEMEAItalyBulletGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets

The Italian August unemployment rate fell to 6.2%, its lowest level since September 2007. This was below the 6.5% consensus and July’s (one tenth downwardly revised) 6.4%. Italy’s labour market will need to remain resilient for the Government to meet its fiscal targets, with the deficit/GDP ratio projected to fall below the EU’s 3% limit by 2026.

  • The unemployment rate can sometimes be volatile on a month-to-month basis, but the 3mma rate nonetheless fell to 6.5% (vs 6.7% prior).
  • Monthly employment growth was 0.2% in August, while 3m/3m growth was 0.5% (vs 0.4% prior), in line with the YTD average. The EC’s monthly expected employment indicator has also risen the last three consecutive months, last 105.7 in September (YTD average: 105.5).
  • The Ministry of Finance’s Q4 issuance plan noted a “persistent upward trend in revenue” this year, with Jan-Jul tax receipts 4.0% higher in 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. Declining unemployment (and increasing employment) rates have likely been key to this development.
  • The Government’s medium-term fiscal plan, presented at the start of the week, projected the unemployment rate to average 7.0% in 2024, before falling to 6.4% by 2029.

 

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The Italian August unemployment rate fell to 6.2%, its lowest level since September 2007. This was below the 6.5% consensus and July’s (one tenth downwardly revised) 6.4%. Italy’s labour market will need to remain resilient for the Government to meet its fiscal targets, with the deficit/GDP ratio projected to fall below the EU’s 3% limit by 2026.

  • The unemployment rate can sometimes be volatile on a month-to-month basis, but the 3mma rate nonetheless fell to 6.5% (vs 6.7% prior).
  • Monthly employment growth was 0.2% in August, while 3m/3m growth was 0.5% (vs 0.4% prior), in line with the YTD average. The EC’s monthly expected employment indicator has also risen the last three consecutive months, last 105.7 in September (YTD average: 105.5).
  • The Ministry of Finance’s Q4 issuance plan noted a “persistent upward trend in revenue” this year, with Jan-Jul tax receipts 4.0% higher in 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. Declining unemployment (and increasing employment) rates have likely been key to this development.
  • The Government’s medium-term fiscal plan, presented at the start of the week, projected the unemployment rate to average 7.0% in 2024, before falling to 6.4% by 2029.