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Italy Dec IP Boost to Help Balance German Contraction

MNI (London)

ITALY DEC SA IND OUTPUT +1.6% M/M (FCST +0.2%); NOV -0.1%r M/M

ITALY DEC IND OUTPUT +0.1% Y/Y (FCST -1.7%); 2022 WDA IND OUTPUT +0.5%

  • Italian industrial production was robust into year end, up +1.6% m/m and a modest +0.1% y/y in December, outpacing expectations and breaking a three-month streak of contractionary m/m readings.
  • Total Q4 industrial output fell by -0.9% in Q4 compared to the previous quarter, implying a drag on Q4 GDP. The Italian economy contracted by -0.1% q/q in the Q4 flash print, largely on weaker agriculture and industrial production, outweighing strong services sector performance.
  • Eurozone aggregate industrial production data is due on Wednesday. So far, a sharper contraction was recorded by Germany, which should be largely cancelled out by upside surprises in French, Spanish and today's Italian data.
  • Volatile Irish data will this month be a drag on the headline print on Wednesday. Consensus is currently looking for -0.9% m/m and -0.8% y/y, implying an overall weak end to Q4.

Source: ISTAT

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