ITALY DATA
Italian December industrial production was weaker than expected falling 3.1% M/M swda (vs -0.2% consensus), after rising 0.3% in November. On a 3m/3m basis, industrial production deteriorated further to -1.1% from -0.7% in November.
- On the month, there were heavy declines across the main categories (consumer goods -3.3%, intermediate goods -3.6% and capital goods -3.3%) whilst energy bounced 1.0% - all on a SWDA basis.
- A reminder though that the underlying data are prone to particularly large swings, which display a heavy seasonal pattern but the magnitude of which can make adjustment difficult: actual NSA production fell -17% M/M compared to the -20% M/M in Dec 2023 whilst the working day adjusted only data saw -19% M/M after -14% M/M in Dec 2023.
- Industrial sentiment in Italy remains weak, with the manufacturing PMI in contractionary territory for 10 consecutive months (46.3 in January). The ISTAT manufacturing confidence series continues to remain below its 2000-2019 average at 86.8 in January (vs 91.0 average).
- 3m/3m production in consumer goods remains positive in December, whilst energy has returned to growth from a slight decline in November. Conversely, 3m/3m intermediate and capital goods production were negative and deteriorated further in December.
- Looking at manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers specifically fell 3.5% M/M, after rising 0.7% in November. The 3m/3m series has been negative since December 2023, and deteriorated further in December to -12.5% from -11.9% in November.
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