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Italy Politics, EU Vaccine Roll Out, Dent EUR Recovery

EUR
MNI (London)
  • Failure to bring pressure to bear on reported resistance at $1.2185/90 Monday led to a corrective pullback, aided in the most part by a paring of risk which benefited the USD across the board.
  • Pressure on the EUR was seen added to by Italian politics(PM Conte could offer his resignation this morning in the hope of negotiating to form a new Govt, failure could prompt election) along with COVID vaccine roll out(Brussels have since tightened rules on ex-EU vaccine exports).
  • Some suggested US corporate demand for USD's into month-end value was also a factor in USD recovery.
  • Rate stepped its way down to an eventual low of $1.2116 before it recovered to $1.2148 through the 1600GMT fix, closing the day around $1.2140.
  • Consolidation in early Asia, EUR/USD dipped to $1.2133 then recovered to $1.2146 before risk was bruised by equity market reaction to PBOC advisor Ma Jun comments, the rate pressed down to $1.2125(50-dma) into Europe.
  • Support $1.2116/06(Jan25 low/61.8% $1.2054-1.2190), a break of $1.2100 to expose $1.2086(76.4%) then recent low at $1.2077(Jan20)
  • Resistance $1.2145/50, $1.2162/73(61.8%-76.4% $1.2190-1.2116), stronger into $1.2185/1.2200.
  • Light EZ data calendar Tuesday. ECB Fernandez-Bollo speaks at 0830GMT. ECB Centeno at 1600GMT.
  • US Phila.Fed, Redbook, Home Prices and Confidence data provides interest into the afternoon.
  • MNI Techs: EURUSD is off recent highs and has pulled away from the 20-day EMA. Last week's gains are likely a pause in the current bearish cycle and further S/T weakness likely. Recent sell-off from 1.2349, Jan 6 high marked the start of a correction and attention is on 1.2054, Jan 8 low. A break would open 1.2011, Sep 1 high and 1.1976, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of the 20-day EMA would expose 1.2230 instead, Jan 11 high.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-586-2231 | john.webb@marketnews.com
BulletMarketsForeign Exchange Bullets

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