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Itaú and Pantheon Forecasting First Banxico Cut in March

MEXICO
  • Pantheon: Regarding today’s inflation data, Pantheon noted a poor end to the year, due mainly to temporary shocks at the non-core level and unfavourable base effects. That said, the general inflation picture continues to improve at the margin, and Pantheon still expect both headline and core inflation to decline consistently over the next few months.
    • Slowing consumer spending, tight monetary policy, the drag from low commodity prices and the MXN rebound last year will help to push inflation down in the near term. Admittedly, the sharp rebound in core inflation will make policymakers very uneasy and likely delay the start of the easing cycle to March.
  • Separately Itaú said their base case remains that a first rate cut will take place in March with a magnitude of 25-bp, and have their year-end policy rate forecast at 9.00%. In similar vein, the bank noted that given the upside surprise in today’s headline inflation figure came mainly from the non-core volatile part of the index and that core inflation was a bit below market expectations, we think that it should not change Banxico’s view of a first rate cut in Q1.
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