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Itaú Expect BCRP On Hold For Remainder Of 2023

PERU
  • Consumer prices increased 0.32% in May, above Itaú’s forecast of 0.16%, but broadly in line with the market consensus of 0.30%. The main upward pressures to headline CPI came from restaurant & hotels (contribution of 11-bp) and food prices (contribution of 25-bp), with the latter driven by fish prices due to a weather anomaly.
  • On an annual basis, headline inflation stood at 7.89% in May (from 7.97% in April), while core inflation (excluding energy and food items) registered a 5.11% increase (from 5.66%).
  • Looking ahead, they expect inflation at 4.0% at the end of this year. Lower commodity prices and below potential activity are likely to help inflation to slow down in 2023.
  • In this context, Itaú expect the BCRP policy rate to remain unchanged throughout the year at 7.75%.
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