BOC POLLS: CANADIANS SAW RECESSION, INFLATION AFTER TRUMP WIN

MNI BRIEF: EU Ministers Could Discuss Defence Spending Monday

RPT- MNI INTERVIEW: Canada Chilled By Trump Tariff Threat

MNI China Daily Summary: Monday, January 20

MNI BRIEF: China Steel Industry To Control Capacity Further

MNI BRIEF: China, US To Strengthen Trade Dialogue - Official

EZ/UK T-Bill Calendar: 6-month ESM-Bill Auction on Tuesday

EZ/UK Bond Supply Calendar: FR/LT/UK Syndications Near Future

MNI: BOC OUTLOOK SURVEY: FUTURE SALES GROWTH BALANCE OF OPINION +31

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

© 1982-2025 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

ARGENTINA: Itaú Expects 1.3% Of GDP Primary Surplus In 2025

ARGENTINA
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • After announcing a 1.8% of GDP primary budget surplus in 2024, Itaú expects the government to achieve a primary surplus of 1.3% of GDP in 2025. This would be consistent with a balanced nominal budget, both in line with the 2025 budget bill. Itaú says that the government's strong commitment to the fiscal framework as the main anchor of the stabilisation programme supports their call.
  • Based on the latest figures, Itaú estimates a consolidated nominal deficit (including net interest payments from the BCRA) of around 1.7% of GDP in 2024, narrowing significantly from a deficit of 14.0% in 2023.
  • Real tax revenues declined in Q4, but at a slower pace due to the recovery in economic activity. Real tax collection increased by 3.9% y/y, after dropping by 5.2% in Q3. Total real revenues decreased by 2.3% y/y in the period (vs. -8.9% in Q3). Strict control on expenditures continued, with primary expenditures down by 22.1% y/y in Q4. Energy subsidies fell by 29.6% y/y, while payrolls decreased by 24.3% y/y. Capital expenditures were down sharply by 69.7% y/y due to the freeze on public works, while transfers to provinces plunged by 63.3% y/y.
191 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • After announcing a 1.8% of GDP primary budget surplus in 2024, Itaú expects the government to achieve a primary surplus of 1.3% of GDP in 2025. This would be consistent with a balanced nominal budget, both in line with the 2025 budget bill. Itaú says that the government's strong commitment to the fiscal framework as the main anchor of the stabilisation programme supports their call.
  • Based on the latest figures, Itaú estimates a consolidated nominal deficit (including net interest payments from the BCRA) of around 1.7% of GDP in 2024, narrowing significantly from a deficit of 14.0% in 2023.
  • Real tax revenues declined in Q4, but at a slower pace due to the recovery in economic activity. Real tax collection increased by 3.9% y/y, after dropping by 5.2% in Q3. Total real revenues decreased by 2.3% y/y in the period (vs. -8.9% in Q3). Strict control on expenditures continued, with primary expenditures down by 22.1% y/y in Q4. Energy subsidies fell by 29.6% y/y, while payrolls decreased by 24.3% y/y. Capital expenditures were down sharply by 69.7% y/y due to the freeze on public works, while transfers to provinces plunged by 63.3% y/y.