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Itaú Says Banxico Forward Guidance Suggests Rate Cuts This Year Unlikely

MEXICO
  • The monetary forward guidance included in the statement, suggests rate cuts this year are unlikely given a complex and uncertain inflation outlook with upward risks.
  • While the statement recognized the economy started to undergo a disinflationary process, it noted a complex inflation outlook with the balance of risks still biased to the upside.
  • Itaú’s end of year policy rate forecast stands at 11.25%, which implies no rate cuts. The central bank is unlikely to cut its policy rate this year given a still difficult disinflationary process and Itaú’s view of the Fed holding rates throughout 2023. They think that the central bank will only start cutting rates during the first half of next year.
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