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Itaú Says May Economic Activity Consistent With Outlook For Softer Q2

MEXICO
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market News
  • The 0.7% m/m (sa) rebound in the monthly GDP proxy in May was supported by a 2.5% m/m gain in construction and 0.8% increase in services. Itaú notes that the data, after a weak April, are consistent with their call for a softer Q2, which is one of the reasons they recently cut their 2024 GDP growth forecast to 1.6%, from 2.3%.
  • Looking at H2, fiscal expenditure is not expected to support activity, likely undermining growth in the services and construction sectors. Manufacturing output, which has been relatively muted in H1, could rebound amid a weaker currency. A softer activity outlook could lead Banxico board members to be more comfortable in resuming their easing cycle at the August meeting.
  • Itaú’s base scenario is still for a 25bp rate cut next month, followed by cuts of the same magnitude in each of the remaining policy meetings this year, bringing the policy rate to 10.00%. The risk to their call is further bouts of market volatility from the new political landscape and/or US election.
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  • The 0.7% m/m (sa) rebound in the monthly GDP proxy in May was supported by a 2.5% m/m gain in construction and 0.8% increase in services. Itaú notes that the data, after a weak April, are consistent with their call for a softer Q2, which is one of the reasons they recently cut their 2024 GDP growth forecast to 1.6%, from 2.3%.
  • Looking at H2, fiscal expenditure is not expected to support activity, likely undermining growth in the services and construction sectors. Manufacturing output, which has been relatively muted in H1, could rebound amid a weaker currency. A softer activity outlook could lead Banxico board members to be more comfortable in resuming their easing cycle at the August meeting.
  • Itaú’s base scenario is still for a 25bp rate cut next month, followed by cuts of the same magnitude in each of the remaining policy meetings this year, bringing the policy rate to 10.00%. The risk to their call is further bouts of market volatility from the new political landscape and/or US election.