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Itaú’s Terminal Policy Rate Stands At 11.50%

MEXICO
  • Itaú believe that recent inflation evolution is supportive of the latest Banxico statement’s forward guidance of slowing down the pace of rate hikes to 25-bp (from 50-bp) at the March meeting, reaching a level of 11.25%. They also think the committee is now attaching less weight to Fed’s decision, but there are upside risks for policy rate in Mexico. Their terminal policy rate stands at 11.50%.
  • Itaú have noted that core inflation sub-indices developed by the central bank, which help to break down the effect of supply (currency, wages and energy prices) and demand shocks (output gap) on prices, indicate that inflation closely associated with the output gap (fundamental inflation) stood at 7.13% in February (practically unchanged from January).
  • The components of core inflation, however, affected by energy commodity prices, salary and currency stood at 8.12% in February (from 8.25% in January), 6.48% (from 6.45%) and 7.81% (from 8.01%), respectively.
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